The Analysis of reasons of falling in prices.
Other things being equal presently approximately double profitable to remove the apartment, than its buy. This circumstance can bring about price reduction on the market moscow veins.
Big part of public forecasts of the prices on home is reduced to that that approached period of price stabilization in a certain time stops whereupon begin the new whorl of growing of the prices.
Such forecast wholly corresponds to our life experience. After all unless take into consideration specific period, followed by august 1998, price on apartments in Russia only grew. However presently introduces the more probable scenario of development of events, under which stabilization will bring not to growing of the prices, but to their fluent reduction.
It Is Explained this that that present level of prices is reached under influence of speculative demand for apartments as on object инвестирования. If price were formed solely source from existing demand for apartments as on consumer item (that is to say on home), this level - shall name its равновесным - there was much below.
The Lease veins against buying the apartment.
What must be a price on apartments in Moscow source from demand for them as on home? Visualize that you suddenly became nowhere to live and urgently was needed the small one-room apartment in Moscow. Presently such apartment possible to gain for $150 thous. approximately. Present also that these money you have. However buying the apartment not single way to satisfy your need for home. You may act on-other. For instance, place their own $150 thous. in bank, but in row of banks better that each contribution did not exceed any amount, guaranteed by state, but got percent to direct one-room apartment on payment of lease necessary you.
Wholly possible that personally you such variant not much likes. After all beside lifes there is serious defect in withdrawable apartment. There it is impossible do the перепланировку. No confidence in that that хозяева do not reconsider and do not ask from this apartments to go down. But, on the other hand, there is and pluses. In withdrawable apartment no need to buy furniture. There no need to do the repair. But if дочка neighbours will begin to learn the music, that possible quickly move on other place. So Even though personally you and seems that минусы lifes in leased home exceed the pluses, remember that other people enough peacefully pertain to this минусам.
In majority of developed countries a demand for lease veins will match on volume with demand for its aquisition. For instance, in Austria, Danmarks, Hollands and Frances an amount leasing apartments and dwelling in own home nearly equally. Even in USA, where state actively стимулирует the private property on home, more than 30% populations lease the apartments. Herewith 57% germans, 62% swedes and 70% swisses prefer to live on withdrawable apartments exactly.
If consider the variant of lease, that we see that in Moscow removal of apartment, which you could buy for $150 thous., will dispense approximately in $600 at month. But unused to buying the apartment of facility possible to place on deposit. In very reliable banks, paying on long-term ruble contributions 9,5% annual, you will get monthly around $1200. Double more, than asks the master of leased apartment. But if place the money under 12% annual that too wholly real unless choose the banks from first group of ten, that percent will grow before $1500.
It Is Got that, having chosen removal of apartment instead of buying, you will live in such apartment, as that, which you could buy, but herewith good bankers will monthly give you money on payment of removal of this apartment not only, but else $600-900 on pocket expenses.
Possible assume,you personally will other things being equal prefer to live in its, rather then in withdrawable apartment, but after all under established correlation of the prices a flat rental and their buying it is impossible speak of "other equal"! The Variants are not: for choice of variant of lease of apartment you will )pay the extra. And much. Moreover than cherish considered apartment, that will more be value of additional charge.
The Variant of lease possible to consider and as temporary решение. $150 thous. lies in bank, and if you solve that already enough have earned on that that veins in withdrawable apartment, can their own money from bank to withdraw and apartment to buy. So if the price on home are stable, chances to become the квартировладельцем in the event of choice of variant of lease increase since your incoms grow.
The Accumulation against lending.
We will Consider other event. Present that you need all same one-room apartment for $150 thous., but, regrettably, money no at all. But then there is good stable earnings so required amount possible easy to take on credit.
If you will take $150 тыc for 20 years under 12% annual, monthly payments on credit will form around $1650. Much more, than $600, which you paid in the event of lease. However here situation not such forgiven. The Combatants of variant of buying veins on credit usually bring forth the following argument: realizing payments to bank, borrower spends more, than lessee, but but then it gradually pays the cost of its apartment. This signifies that, when beside he will finish the heavy years of payment of debt, apartment will remain in property. In ditto time to firmed lessee to pay for removal to come always.
However people, bringing forth this argument, mildly are cunning. After all lessee can monthly postpone the money by so as in 20 years to accumulate $150 thous.. In this case it will get the possibility to buy the apartment and stop the lease payments then, when borrower will cease to extinguish its credit. But even with provision for postponed amounts total monthly payments lessee will less, than beside borrower.
That this demonstrate, consider the conditional example. There is two persons, one of the which has taken the hypothecary credit in $150 thous. and has bought the apartment, but other lease for $600 at month such apartment and began to postpone on bank deposit of facility to its buying. For simplification of payments we will expect that percent rates on credit and on deposit are 12% annual. Herewith hypothecary credit аннуитетный that is to say monthly payment on credit always alike (in our event - $1650), but at share, happenning to on redemption of the main debt on credit, in each following payment more, than in previous, but share, happenning to on percent, accordingly less.
We will Expect (again for simplification of payments) that lessee solve monthly to contribute on deposit count same amount, which this month borrower pays as redemptions of the main debt on credit. In this case period of accumulation beside lessee and period of redemption of credit beside borrower will finish simultaneously.
We will Compare the total monthly payments of borrower and lessee. At first month after buying the apartment a borrower will pay the bank $1500 in the manner of percent payment. Besides, it will pay the bank $150 as redemptions of the main debt on credit. The Whole $1650. The Lessee at first month of lease will pay $600 in the manner of rental and will contribute $150 on its накопительный count, having spent whole $750.
Obviously that at first month a lease profitable. Also obviously that it profitable and in the consecutive months while payment in redemption of the main debt of borrower (and accordingly payment on накопительный count of lessee) less $1050. Then while total payments of lessee (even disregarding percent on contribution) less $1650 - fixed monthly payment of borrower.
We will Consider now payments in that month, to which lessee will accumulate $60 thous. on deposit (disregarding percent on contribution), but borrower goes out the bank this amount. The Borrower will pay in this month $900 in the manner of percent payment, but, besides, $750 in count of redemption of the main debt on credit. The Whole $1650, as usually. The Lessee will return $600 for lease, place;put;lay on накопительный count $750 and will get $600 as percent incom on already smoked $60 thous.. The Net payments of lessee turn out to be are whole $750. Much less, than payments of borrower. But since at this point of time monthly percent incom of lessee will превышать its rental, is got, as all consecutive months of payment of lessee will vastly below be payments of borrower.
It Is Got, as at presence of money on apartment, and under their absence you much profitable to remove the apartment, than buy its (if assume,the price is stable holds on present level). Under one and same housing conditions a level of living beside lessee will much above, since its actual incoms turn out to be more.
Obviously that at period of growing of the prices on home a situation absolutely another. The Level Of Living beside lessees, removed apartments, too there was much above, than beside buyers, however at the disposal the asset turn out to be beside buyers, cost which rapidly grew.
With mediums 2005 on medium 2006 price on apartments in Moscow increase double. This signifies that people, which have prefered to buy the apartment for $150 thous., have got the possibility through year to sell it for $300 thous.. These additional $150 thous. present itself their investment incom and with interest set off a loss, which they carry, having chosen "reducing level of living" variant of buying.
In this connection Demand For home at period of growing of the prices was defined not only need for home as consumer item, but also need for him as in object инвестирования. The Additional demand cause the additional growing of the prices, which did buying veins by else more profitable investment, but consequently, enlarge the speculative investment demand, else more accelerated growing of the prices.
However if the price are stable, that apartment, gained for $150 thous., from month the apartment remains at month for $150 thous.. Consequently, no investment incom an embedding the facilities in its buying does not bring. А with provision for that that price on apartments in Moscow номинированы in "дешевеющих" dollars, that practically embedding the facilities in buying the apartment brings about losses in conditions of stabilities of the prices even. The Demand For apartments as on object инвестирования herewith fritters out, but demand for them as on consumer item decreases, since this demand profitable to satisfy to account of removal veins. Time of exposure of apartments increases On measure of reduction of demand, but then begins the gradual price reduction.
The Arguments against logic.
Appears the natural question: before what level will fall the price if this scenario is realized? If follow the logic of afore-cited model, that fall in prices must be strong, since price must strive to равновесному to level then to such, under which person must be no difference, remove the apartment or buy it. If percent rate will is 10% annual, that равновесная price of apartment, rental on which is $600 at month, will form $72 thous.. Twice as little, than current price of such apartment.
However possible expect that равновесная price is stabilized on vastly more high level and so deep fall does not occur. This is connected with the following circumstances.
First, necessities for turning to равновесным to prices of перетекание demand with market of buying veins on market of its lease is labored in Russia by disorganization of market of lease, as well as its retardation and opacity,
Secondly, reduction of demand to buying veins, also стимулирующее ]transition to равновесным to prices, will occur much slowly since enough greater amount of people are persuaded: premises - most reliable investment in world, and perceive moving the prices downwards as signal to its buying, supporting demand for home.
In-third, exists the obvious trend to reduction of percent rates and growing of cost of lease, which in conditions of slow reduction of demand must bring about growing of равновесного level of prices.
Well and in-fourth, ]transition to равновесным to prices can in general not to occur in segment of apartments of classes "business" and "elite", for buyers of this type veins presence of own apartment - factor of success since, for the sake of which they are ready to neglect the objective financial considerations. The demand s On this reasons for apartments a thrifty person-class on the part of people, arrived "conquer" Moscow and successfully this made that will provide the maintenance of the prices and in this segment.
Herewith necessary to understand that though scenario of ]transition from stable prices to bearish is most probable, it is impossible confirm that it will is marketed. It Is Possible and more probable scenario: new whorl of growing of the prices can be provoked some purposive or unintentional actions of participants of market.
So, for instance, jump of the prices can be caused by legislative initiatives, like sad known law + 214-ФЗ, sudden tax checking the people, delivering home in lease, artificial reduction of hypothecary percent rates, agreements an застройщиков about "united price politician", запретом on sale veins an иногородним and т. d. However even though and will is marketed the low-probable scenario of new whorl of growing of the prices, this only отсрочит the moment of their ]transition to равновесному to level.
Авг. 8, 2008, полночь
